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Deportivo Binacional vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
9/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Mariano Melgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Deportivo Binacional52%
×Draw24%
Real Garcilaso24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.70
Real Garcilaso
1.07

Deportivo Binacional creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 39 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
76%
Deportivo Binacional or Real Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
28%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
51%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
24%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
66%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
29%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
69%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
52%
level
24%
Real Garcilaso scores more
24%

Deportivo Binacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Binacional 1–4 Real Garcilaso

Real Garcilaso beat Deportivo Binacional 4-1 in Primera División on September 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Melgar in Arequipa.