Deportivo Binacional 2–0 Cusco: Result & Stats

Deportivo Binacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cusco

A. Polar 90+2'

B. Palacios 41'

8/26/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Binacional49%

×Draw24%

Cusco27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo BinacionalExpected goals in this matchCusco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.19

Deportivo Binacional

1.69

Cusco

1.19

Deportivo Binacional creates 42% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 63 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

1.26

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.74

Cusco

1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional

1.26

Cusco

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par

Cusco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Cusco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw

73%

Deportivo Binacional or Cusco

76%

Draw or Cusco

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

26%

Cusco wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

82%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

50%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

24%

Cusco 1+ goals

70%

Cusco 2+ goals

33%

Cusco 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

65%

Cusco (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

Cusco away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.74 + Cusco defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cusco attack 1.13 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more

49%

level

24%

Cusco scores more

27%

Deportivo Binacional at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Aubert

Deportivo Binacional · M

9.2

Match Events

15'

Nelinho QuinaCard upgrade

17'

Nelinho Quina

24'

H. Benincasa← C. Olivares

41'

B. Palacios↳ E. Aubert

57'

58'

66'

67'

68'

J. Vidales← M. da Luz

68'

A. Yovera← A. Gordillo

69'

Alonso Yovera

70'

A. Polar← O. Núñez

81'

T. Cantoro← J. Guivin

90+3'

Andy Polar

90+2'

A. Polar↳ F. Oncoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCusco

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots9

9Corners6

10Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target2

10Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

433Total Passes200

367Accurate Passes146

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0