Cusco 2–1 Deportivo Binacional: Result & Stats

Cusco

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Binacional

A. Ayarza 77'

J. Fajardo 13'

J. Cáceres 27'

4/7/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cusco64%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Binacional14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuscoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Binacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.77

Cusco

1.91

Deportivo Binacional

0.77

Cusco creates 148% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

1.76

creates per match

0.81

0.73

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Cusco

1.76

Deportivo Binacional

0.81

allows per match

Cusco

0.73

Deportivo Binacional

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cusco+0.00on par

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cusco ↓

Deportivo Binacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cusco or draw

86%

Cusco or Deportivo Binacional

79%

Draw or Deportivo Binacional

36%

Winning margin

Cusco wins by 2+

39%

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cusco 1+ goals

85%

Cusco 2+ goals

57%

Cusco 3+ goals

30%

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals

54%

Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals

18%

Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cusco (draw refunded)

82%

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cusco at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.73 · 62 matches

Deportivo Binacional away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cusco attack 1.76 + Deportivo Binacional defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.91

Deportivo Binacional attack 0.81 + Cusco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cusco scores more

64%

level

21%

Deportivo Binacional scores more

14%

Cusco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cusco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Fajardo

Cusco · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

Stiwar Mena

13'

J. Fajardo↳ F. Alonso

27'

44'

46'

61'

69'

71'

71'

73'

76'

76'

77'

80'

H. Benincasa← A. Gordillo

81'

B. Fernández← J. Cáceres

81'

B. Palacios← M. Quina

88'

J. Bilbao← J. Estrada

89'

O. Núñez← R. Villamarín

90'

Brandon Palacios

90'

J. Vizcarra← A. Rosell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuscoDeportivo

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots8

11Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target1

5Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

273Total Passes294

207Accurate Passes228

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4