Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Binacional vs Cienciano — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Binacional
Deportivo Binacional
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cienciano
Cienciano
9/16/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Deportivo Binacional49%
×Draw24%
Cienciano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Binacional
1.68
Cienciano
1.19

Deportivo Binacional creates 41% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 106 away

creates per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.81
Cienciano
1.21

allows per match

Deportivo Binacional
1.17
Cienciano
1.54

finishing

Deportivo Binacional+0.00on par
Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Binacional ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Binacional or draw
73%
Deportivo Binacional or Cienciano
76%
Draw or Cienciano
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Binacional wins by 2+
26%
Cienciano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Binacional 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Binacional 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Binacional 3+ goals
24%
Cienciano 1+ goals
70%
Cienciano 2+ goals
33%
Cienciano 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Binacional (draw refunded)
64%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Binacional at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Binacional attack 1.81 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cienciano attack 1.21 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Binacional scores more
49%
level
24%
Cienciano scores more
27%

Deportivo Binacional at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Binacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Binacional vs Cienciano

Deportivo Binacional and Cienciano drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Briceño Rosamedina in Juliaca.