Cienciano vs Deportivo Binacional — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 106+ matches
Cienciano55%
Deportivo Binacional21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cienciano creates 77% more chances
Season form · 106 home / 114 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cienciano ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cienciano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.02 · 106 matches
Deportivo Binacional away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 114 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cienciano attack 1.82 + Deportivo Binacional defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77
Deportivo Binacional attack 0.98 + Cienciano defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Cienciano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Real Garcilaso
Deportivo Municipal
FBC Melgar
Union ComercioDeportivo Binacional
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
Universitario
Sport Rosario
Academia Cantolao
U. San Martin
Ayacucho FC
Comerciantes UnidosFBC MelgarAlianza LimaAyacucho FCUniversitarioSporting CristalUnion ComercioU. San MartinReal GarcilasoAcademia CantolaoDeportivo MunicipalSport BoysComerciantes UnidosDeportivo BinacionalSport HuancayoSport RosarioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cienciano host Deportivo Binacional on Wednesday, 27 July 2022 at 22:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Cienciano vs Deportivo Binacional
Cienciano and Deportivo Binacional drew 1-1 in Primera División on July 27, 2022.
Goals: J. de la Cruz (37'), D. Carando (84').
Cienciano controlled possession (66%) and registered 31 shots to 8.
The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.