Deportivo Armenio 0–2 Excursionistas

Deportivo Armenio

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Excursionistas

G. Tellas 90'

M. Blanco 45'

3/21/2026

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 7Armenia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Deportivo Armenio42%

×Draw28%

Excursionistas30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo ArmenioExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Deportivo Armenio

1.27

Excursionistas

1.02

Deportivo Armenio creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

1.28

creates per match

1.25

0.80

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio

1.28

Excursionistas

1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio

0.80

Excursionistas

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw

70%

Deportivo Armenio or Excursionistas

72%

Draw or Excursionistas

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+

19%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals

14%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

64%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

27%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)

59%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.80 · 65 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.28 + Excursionistas defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Excursionistas attack 1.25 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more

42%

level

28%

Excursionistas scores more

30%

Deportivo Armenio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

S. Lagomarsino← N. Troxler

39'

45'

56'

57'

57'

M. Davila← N. Herrera Jonathan

70'

87'

M. Alaniz← A. Avalos

90'

G. Tellas

Deportivo

Excursionistas

1

4

2

6

3

5

8

▼

Avalos

7

Espeche

10

⚽

11

9

1

4

▼

2

6

3

8

5

▼

Tello

10

Ramos

7

Villalva

9

▼

Jonathan

11

Palma

17'▲S. Lagomarsino←▼N. Troxler

57'▲D. Nakache←▼F. Tello

57'▲M. Davila←▼N. Herrera Jonathan

Deportivo Armenio substitutes

13Ortiz14Lagomarsino15Chocobar16Barrionuevo17Luna18Nakache19Figueroa20Davila

87'▲M. Alaniz←▼A. Avalos

Excursionistas substitutes

12Blengio13Maizarez14Rodriguez15Damiolini16Alaniz17Pereyra18Pereyra19Cardozo20Tellas