Deportivo Armenio 2–1 Excursionistas

Deportivo Armenio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Excursionistas

L. Scarnato 70'

J. Barbieri 40'

H. Zarco 61'

6/15/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 21Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Armenio40%

×Draw28%

Excursionistas31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo ArmenioExpected goals in this matchExcursionistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.05

Deportivo Armenio

1.23

Excursionistas

1.05

Deportivo Armenio creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

1.24

0.87

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio

1.21

Excursionistas

1.24

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio

0.87

Excursionistas

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Excursionistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Excursionistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw

69%

Deportivo Armenio or Excursionistas

72%

Draw or Excursionistas

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+

18%

Excursionistas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals

13%

Excursionistas 1+ goals

65%

Excursionistas 2+ goals

28%

Excursionistas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)

56%

Excursionistas (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Excursionistas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.21 + Excursionistas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Excursionistas attack 1.24 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more

40%

level

28%

Excursionistas scores more

31%

Deportivo Armenio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

J. Barbieri

46'

M. Fernández← L. Pata

57'

J. Villagra← F. Figueroa

61'

H. Zarco

62'

V. Venetucci← J. Guenzani

70'

L. Scarnato

78'

B. Acosta← N. Troxler

78'

R. Ramos← L. Villalva

84'

F. Ferraro← C. Peralta

89'

M. Ayala← N. Sica

89'

S. González← S. Monzón

Deportivo

Excursionistas

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: C. Tula

62'▲V. Venetucci←▼J. Guenzani

78'▲B. Acosta←▼N. Troxler

78'▲R. Ramos←▼L. Villalva

89'▲M. Ayala←▼N. Sica

Deportivo Armenio substitutes

VenetucciAcostaRamosAyala

Manager: J. Kopriva

46'▲M. Fernández←▼L. Pata

57'▲J. Villagra←▼F. Figueroa

84'▲F. Ferraro←▼C. Peralta

89'▲S. González←▼S. Monzón

Excursionistas substitutes

FernándezVillagraFerraroGonzález