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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
8/25/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui29%
×Draw28%
Caracas FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Caracas FC
1.27

Caracas FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 146 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Caracas FC
1.22

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Caracas FC
1.00

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
57%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Caracas FC
72%
Draw or Caracas FC
71%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
11%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
8%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
72%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
36%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
41%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
29%
level
28%
Caracas FC scores more
43%

Caracas FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Anzoategui vs Caracas FC

Caracas FC beat Deportivo Anzoategui 2-1 in Primera División on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).