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Caracas FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
3/14/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Caracas FC54%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Anzoategui21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.70
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.97

Caracas FC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 26 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.58
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Caracas FC
1.01
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
79%
Caracas FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
76%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
46%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
82%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
51%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Caracas FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
21%

Caracas FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Caracas FC 4–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Caracas FC beat Deportivo Anzoategui 4-0 in Primera División on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas).