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Deportivo Alavés III vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
4/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III56%
×Draw24%
Aurrerá Vitoria20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.71
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.91

Deportivo Alavés III creates 88% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
80%
Deportivo Alavés III or Aurrerá Vitoria
76%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
31%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
51%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
24%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
60%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
23%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
74%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
56%
level
24%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
20%

Deportivo Alavés III at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés III 1–1 Aurrerá Vitoria

Deportivo Alavés III and Aurrerá Vitoria drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4 in Vitoria-Gasteiz.