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Aurrerá Vitoria vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria37%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.22
Deportivo Alavés III
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
65%
Aurrerá Vitoria or Deportivo Alavés III
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
63%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
70%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
34%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
35%

Aurrerá Vitoria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aurrerá Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aurrerá Vitoria 0 – 1 Deportivo Alavés III

Deportivo Alavés III beat Aurrerá Vitoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.