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Deportivo Alavés II vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II62%
×Draw21%
Aurrerá Ondarroa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.95
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.88

Deportivo Alavés II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
2.26
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.84
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
84%
Deportivo Alavés II or Aurrerá Ondarroa
79%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
38%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
38%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
86%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
58%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
31%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
59%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
22%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
79%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 2.26 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
62%
level
21%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
16%

Deportivo Alavés II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Deportivo Alavés II beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.