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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Deportivo Alavés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
3/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa25%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.91
Deportivo Alavés II
1.35

Deportivo Alavés II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
Deportivo Alavés II
1.53

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
Deportivo Alavés II
0.79

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
53%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or Deportivo Alavés II
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
75%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
9%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
60%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
23%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
6%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
35%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.53 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
25%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
47%

Deportivo Alavés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1 – 2 Deportivo Alavés II

Deportivo Alavés II beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.