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Deportiva Minera vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Deportiva Minera49%
×Draw26%
Cartagena FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportiva Minera
1.51
Cartagena FC
1.02

Deportiva Minera creates 48% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

Deportiva Minera
1.50
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

Deportiva Minera
0.95
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

Deportiva Minera+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Minera ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportiva Minera or draw
74%
Deportiva Minera or Cartagena FC
74%
Draw or Cartagena FC
51%

Winning margin

Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
25%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
78%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
44%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
19%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
64%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
27%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
65%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Minera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Minera attack 1.50 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + Deportiva Minera defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportiva Minera scores more
49%
level
26%
Cartagena FC scores more
26%

Deportiva Minera at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportiva Minera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Deportiva Minera 0–0 Cartagena FC

Deportiva Minera and Cartagena FC drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ángel Celdrán in El Llano del Beal.