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Cartagena FC vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC38%
×Draw26%
Deportiva Minera36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.37
Deportiva Minera
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
64%
Cartagena FC or Deportiva Minera
74%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
62%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
18%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
16%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
73%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
38%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
52%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Deportiva Minera scores more
36%

Cartagena FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC 3 – 1 Deportiva Minera

Cartagena FC beat Deportiva Minera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.