Deportiva Agropecuaria 4–1 Carlos Stein

Deportiva Agropecuaria

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Carlos Stein

7/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio San Luis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria58%

×Draw21%

Carlos Stein21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva AgropecuariaExpected goals in this matchCarlos Stein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.15

Deportiva Agropecuaria

2.04

Carlos Stein

1.15

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 77% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

1.09

1.21

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.29

Carlos Stein

1.09

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.21

Carlos Stein

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Carlos Stein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw

79%

Deportiva Agropecuaria or Carlos Stein

79%

Draw or Carlos Stein

42%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

35%

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

87%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

60%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

33%

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

68%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

32%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

73%

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.04

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

58%

level

21%

Carlos Stein scores more

21%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff