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Carlos Stein vs Deportiva Agropecuaria — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Deportiva Agropecuaria
5/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlos Stein34%
×Draw24%
Deportiva Agropecuaria42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.40
Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.58

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Deportiva Agropecuaria
0.92

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.67

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Deportiva Agropecuaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
58%
Carlos Stein or Deportiva Agropecuaria
76%
Draw or Deportiva Agropecuaria
66%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
15%
Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
75%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
41%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
17%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals
79%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals
47%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
45%
Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 0.92 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
34%
level
24%
Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more
42%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 2–4 Deportiva Agropecuaria

Deportiva Agropecuaria beat Carlos Stein 4-2 in Segunda División on May 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.