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Deportes Valdivia vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera B 2018

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
3/25/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 7Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportes Valdivia33%
×Draw27%
Coquimbo Unido41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.18
Coquimbo Unido
1.35

Coquimbo Unido creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.35
Coquimbo Unido
1.38

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.32
Coquimbo Unido
1.00

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
59%
Deportes Valdivia or Coquimbo Unido
73%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
67%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
13%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
33%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
12%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
74%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
39%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
45%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.35 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.38 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
33%
level
27%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
41%

Coquimbo Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Valdivia vs Coquimbo Unido

Deportes Valdivia and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia).