Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
CANC
00:00
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
9/29/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 25Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Coquimbo Unido58%
×Draw23%
Deportes Valdivia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.77
Deportes Valdivia
0.89

Coquimbo Unido creates 99% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.48
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.71
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
81%
Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Valdivia
77%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
42%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
33%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
83%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
53%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
26%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
59%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
22%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
76%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
58%
level
23%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
19%

Coquimbo Unido at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Coquimbo Unido host Deportes Valdivia

September 29, 2018: Coquimbo Unido take on Deportes Valdivia in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Coquimbo Unido host Deportes Valdivia at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.