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Deportes Valdivia vs Colina — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colina
Colina
9/12/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deportes Valdivia46%
×Draw27%
Colina26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.37
Colina
0.96

Deportes Valdivia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Colina
0.82

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.09
Colina
1.43

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Colina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Colina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
74%
Deportes Valdivia or Colina
73%
Draw or Colina
54%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
22%
Colina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
16%
Colina 1+ goals
62%
Colina 2+ goals
25%
Colina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
64%
Colina (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Colina away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Colina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colina attack 0.82 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
46%
level
27%
Colina scores more
26%

Deportes Valdivia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Valdivia 3–0 Colina

Deportes Valdivia beat Colina 3-0 in Segunda División on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal in Valdivia.