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Colina vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

Colina
Colina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
6/5/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal de Colina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colina39%
×Draw25%
Deportes Valdivia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colina
1.43
Deportes Valdivia
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

creates per match

Colina
1.46
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

Colina
1.57
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

Colina+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colina ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Colina or draw
65%
Colina or Deportes Valdivia
75%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
61%

Winning margin

Colina wins by 2+
19%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Colina 1+ goals
76%
Colina 2+ goals
42%
Colina 3+ goals
17%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
74%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
39%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Colina (draw refunded)
53%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colina at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colina attack 1.46 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Colina defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colina scores more
39%
level
25%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
35%

Colina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colina vs Deportes Valdivia

Colina beat Deportes Valdivia 1-0 in Segunda División on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Colina in Colina.