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Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2018

Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
11/25/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportes Tolima47%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Cali24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Tolima
1.27
Deportivo Cali
0.82

Deportes Tolima creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportes Tolima
1.31
Deportivo Cali
1.05

allows per match

Deportes Tolima
0.60
Deportivo Cali
1.24

finishing

Deportes Tolima-0.45scores less
Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw
76%
Deportes Tolima or Deportivo Cali
71%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
53%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
72%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
36%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.60 · 7 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.31 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more
47%
level
29%
Deportivo Cali scores more
24%

Deportes Tolima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali

Deportes Tolima beat Deportivo Cali 4-2 in Primera A on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in Ibagué.