Deportes Tolima 3–0 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Nacional

J. Gonzalez 89'

J. Mosquera 78'

L. Sandoval 45' (pen)

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deportes Tolima64%

×Draw22%

Club Nacional14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.69

Deportes Tolima

1.80

Club Nacional

0.69

Deportes Tolima creates 161% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.22

0.17

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.50

Club Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.17

Club Nacional

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

86%

Deportes Tolima or Club Nacional

78%

Draw or Club Nacional

36%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

38%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

83%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

54%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

27%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

50%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

15%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

82%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.50 + Club Nacional defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Club Nacional attack 1.22 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

64%

level

22%

Club Nacional scores more

14%

Deportes Tolima at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Sandoval

Deportes Tolima · F

8.3

Match Events

45+8'

45+9'

45+10'

45+10'

45'

L. SandovalPenalty

46'

M. Silvera← N. Lodeiro

64'

A. dos Santos

70'

T. Veron← G. Carneiro

70'

J. De Los Santos← B. Barcia

73'

C. Trujillo← B. Rovira

74'

J. Gonzalez← E. Lopez

74'

J. Mosquera← A. Parra Osorio

78'

J. Mosquera↳ J. Gonzalez

81'

J. Nieto← J. P. Torres Patino

81'

J. Valencia← K. Florez

88'

L. Gonzalez← L. Boggio

89'

J. Gonzalez↳ L. Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesClub

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots8

3.36Expected Goals (xG)0.31

10Corners3

3Fouls5

Shots

19Total Shots8

9On Target2

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

461Total Passes276

378Accurate Passes183

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.86Goals Prevented0.86

Discipline

3Fouls5

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1