Club Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Tolima

N. Lopez 87'

S. Coates 64'

M. Gomez 48'

B. Rovira 80'

4/14/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Club Nacional48%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.85

Club Nacional

1.34

Deportes Tolima

0.85

Club Nacional creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

0.57

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Club Nacional

1.25

Deportes Tolima

0.57

allows per match

Club Nacional

1.13

Deportes Tolima

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

76%

Club Nacional or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

52%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

23%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

74%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

39%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

15%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

57%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

21%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

67%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 1.25 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportes Tolima attack 0.57 + Club Nacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Nacional scores more

48%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

24%

Club Nacional at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Lopez

Club Nacional · F

9.6

Match Events

14'

37'

41'

45+3'

46'

M. Silvera← P. Calione

48'

M. Gomez

62'

E. Lopez← A. Parra Osorio

62'

J. P. Torres Patino← D. Pedrozo

64'

S. Coates↳ N. Lopez

76'

S. P. Barbosa Gomez← C. Trujillo

76'

N. Sanchez← L. Sandoval

77'

S. Guzman← J. Hernandez

78'

Agustín Rogel

80'

B. Rovira

85'

A. dos Santos← N. Lodeiro

87'

N. Lopez↳ A. dos Santos

90'

90+3'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

L. Gonzalez← L. Boggio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubDeportes

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots7

1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.40

6Corners2

11Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots7

7On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked1

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

304Total Passes443

231Accurate Passes378

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.47Goals Prevented-0.47

Discipline

11Fouls18

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2