Deportes Rengo 0–4 Concón National: Result & Stats

Deportes Rengo

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Concón National

6/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportes Rengo34%

×Draw25%

Concón National42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes RengoExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.52

Deportes Rengo

1.34

Concón National

1.52

Concón National creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 31 away

1.21

creates per match

1.65

1.40

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Deportes Rengo

1.21

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Deportes Rengo

1.40

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Rengo ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Deportes Rengo or draw

58%

Deportes Rengo or Concón National

75%

Draw or Concón National

66%

Winning margin

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+

15%

Concón National wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals

74%

Deportes Rengo 2+ goals

39%

Deportes Rengo 3+ goals

15%

Concón National 1+ goals

78%

Concón National 2+ goals

45%

Concón National 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)

45%

Concón National (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Rengo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Rengo attack 1.21 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Concón National attack 1.65 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Rengo scores more

34%

level

25%

Concón National scores more

42%

Concón National at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff