Concón National 0–1 Deportes Rengo: Result & Stats

Concón National

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Rengo

8/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National45%

×Draw26%

Deportes Rengo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concón NationalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Rengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

Concón National

1.44

Deportes Rengo

1.09

Concón National creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.19

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Concón National

1.26

Deportes Rengo

1.00

allows per match

Concón National

1.19

Deportes Rengo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Deportes Rengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Concón National or draw

71%

Concón National or Deportes Rengo

74%

Draw or Deportes Rengo

55%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+

22%

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals

76%

Concón National 2+ goals

42%

Concón National 3+ goals

18%

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals

66%

Deportes Rengo 2+ goals

30%

Deportes Rengo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)

61%

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Deportes Rengo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Deportes Rengo attack 1.00 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Concón National scores more

45%

level

26%

Deportes Rengo scores more

29%

Concón National at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff