Deportes Limache 2–0 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cobresal

D. Castro 43' (pen)

F. Pons 30'

10/18/2025

Primera División · Round 24Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportes Limache58%

×Draw20%

Cobresal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.31

Deportes Limache

2.25

Cobresal

1.31

Deportes Limache creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.01

creates per match

1.66

0.97

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Cobresal

1.66

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Cobresal

2.49

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

78%

Deportes Limache or Cobresal

80%

Draw or Cobresal

42%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

36%

Cobresal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

89%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

65%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

39%

Cobresal 1+ goals

73%

Cobresal 2+ goals

38%

Cobresal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

73%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.25

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

58%

level

20%

Cobresal scores more

22%

Deportes Limache at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

C. Pinares

Deportes Limache · M

8.0

Match Events

27'

César Munder

30'

F. Pons

43'

D. CastroPenalty

46'

46'

57'

60'

60'

63'

63'

M. Sepulveda← S. Carrasco

72'

F. Fritz← F. Pons

72'

L. Maluenda← Y. W. Andia Leon

75'

M. Roki← C. Yanis

82'

Aaron Astudillo

82'

D. Catalan← L. Guerra

89'

Cristhofer Mesías

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesCobresal

Overview

55%Possession45%

21Total Shots9

3.52Expected Goals (xG)0.87

8Corners1

21Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots9

6On Target3

12Off Target5

3Blocked1

15Inside Box2

6Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

462Total Passes384

406Accurate Passes322

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls9

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0