Cobresal 3–1 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Deportes Limache

J. A. Henriquez Neira 59'

C. Toro 23'

D. Coelho 5'

D. Castro 86'

4/26/2025

Primera División · Round 9Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cobresal53%

×Draw23%

Deportes Limache25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.23

Cobresal

1.89

Deportes Limache

1.23

Cobresal creates 54% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 23 away

1.74

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Cobresal

1.74

Deportes Limache

1.30

allows per match

Cobresal

1.17

Deportes Limache

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobresal+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

75%

Cobresal or Deportes Limache

77%

Draw or Deportes Limache

47%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

30%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

85%

Cobresal 2+ goals

56%

Cobresal 3+ goals

29%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

71%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

35%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

68%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 107 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.74 + Deportes Limache defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.89

Deportes Limache attack 1.30 + Cobresal defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cobresal scores more

53%

level

23%

Deportes Limache scores more

25%

Cobresal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. A. Henriquez Neira

Cobresal · M

9.2

Match Events

5'

D. Coelho↳ V. Fernandez

23'

C. Toro↳ J. A. Henriquez Neira

45+2'

Benjamin Valenzuela

46'

A. Marquez← B. Valenzuela

46'

A. Aguirre← A. Parot

46'

F. Fritz← B. Silva

46'

L. Guerra← M. Llanten

59'

J. A. Henriquez Neira↳ V. Fernandez

61'

C. Yanis← J. Gaete

66'

D. Catalan← B. Torrealba

76'

M. Sandoval← C. Pinares

83'

José Tiznado

84'

F. Bechtholdt← J. A. Henriquez Neira

84'

A. Astudillo← C. Barrera

84'

A. Vilches Araneda← D. Coelho

86'

D. Castro↳ F. Romero

89'

Guillermo Pacheco

90+6'

Alejandro Márquez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalDeportes

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots13

7Corners10

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots13

9On Target6

3Off Target6

1Blocked1

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

558Total Passes355

502Accurate Passes297

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2