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Deportes Iquique vs Caracas FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
E. Puch 4' (pen)
D. Aguilar 37'
E. Echenique 33'
4/1/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Deportes Iquique43%
×Draw23%
Caracas FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Iquique
1.80
Caracas FC
1.60

Deportes Iquique creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Deportes Iquique
2.00
Caracas FC
1.20

allows per match

Deportes Iquique
2.00
Caracas FC
1.60

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw
65%
Deportes Iquique or Caracas FC
77%
Draw or Caracas FC
57%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
23%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
83%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
54%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
27%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
80%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
47%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
55%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 2.00 + Caracas FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Caracas FC attack 1.20 + Deportes Iquique defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more
43%
level
23%
Caracas FC scores more
35%

Deportes Iquique at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. PuchDeportes IquiqueDeportes Iquique · M
7.5

Match Events

3'
Francisco La Mantía
4'
E. PuchPenalty
33'
E. Echenique↳ M. Covea
36'
Edson Puch
37'
D. Aguilar
42'
M. Moya← C. Gonzalez
46'
D. Tegues← J. De Santis
60'
D. N. Fernandez C.← D. Orellana
60'
E. Hoyos← M. Davila Carvajal
68'
J. Hernandez← A. Figueroa
75'
M. Vegas← V. Rodriguez
76'
Leslie Heraldez
76'
L. Heraldez← D. Aguilar
80'
Javier Parraguez← A. Ramos
88'
Ender Echenique
88'
N. Jimenez← E. Echenique
90+3'
Javier Parraguez
90+5'
Deivid Tegues

Possession

56%Deportes

Shots

9Deportes

Pass accuracy

50%Deportes

Statistics

DeportesCaracas
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots12
3Corners3
15Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots12
1On Target5
8Off Target4
0Blocked3
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
471Total Passes366
371Accurate Passes288
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Deportes Iquique vs Caracas FC

Caracas FC beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Puch (4' pen), E. Echenique (33'), D. Aguilar (37').

Deportes Iquique controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.