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Caracas FC vs Deportes Iquique — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
D. Tegues 34'
M. Covea 26'
C. Gonzalez 54'
5/30/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caracas FC73%
×Draw18%
Deportes Iquique9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
2.17
Deportes Iquique
0.61

Caracas FC creates 256% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.00
Deportes Iquique
0.33

allows per match

Caracas FC
0.90
Deportes Iquique
3.33

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Deportes Iquique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
91%
Caracas FC or Deportes Iquique
82%
Draw or Deportes Iquique
27%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
48%
Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
89%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
64%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
36%
Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
46%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
13%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
89%
Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.00 + Deportes Iquique defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Deportes Iquique attack 0.33 + Caracas FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Caracas FC scores more
73%
level
18%
Deportes Iquique scores more
9%

Caracas FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. TeguesCaracas FCCaracas FC · F
7.5

Match Events

26'
M. Covea↳ E. Echenique
28'
Jose Hernandez Chavez
34'
D. Tegues↳ E. Echenique
35'
Deivid Tegues
46'
C. Gonzalez← L. Marcotti
46'
B. Barrera← M. Jorquera
54'
C. Gonzalez
60'
L. Reinoso← D. Tegues
65'
R. Valenzuela← J. Gomez
70'
A. Figueroa← M. Vegas
70'
V. Rodriguez← L. Heraldez
73'
Edgardo Rito
73'
Edgardo RitoCard upgrade
76'
N. Jimenez← J. Hernandez
76'
B. Edet← B. Rodriguez
82'
A. Henriquez← C. Fuentes
87'
D. Arias← D. Orellana
90+6'
César González

Possession

52%Caracas

Shots

9Caracas

Pass accuracy

52%Caracas

Statistics

CaracasDeportes
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots19
2Corners1
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots19
3On Target4
6Off Target7
0Blocked8
4Inside Box4
5Outside Box15
Passing
52%Possession48%
439Total Passes400
373Accurate Passes317
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Caracas FC vs Deportes Iquique

Caracas FC beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Covea (26'), D. Tegues (34'), C. Gonzalez (54').

Caracas FC controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.