Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportes Iquique vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barnechea
Barnechea
10/10/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 31Estadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportes Iquique49%
×Draw24%
Barnechea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Iquique
1.66
Barnechea
1.16

Deportes Iquique creates 43% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 95 away

creates per match

Deportes Iquique
1.79
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Deportes Iquique
1.23
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw
73%
Deportes Iquique or Barnechea
76%
Draw or Barnechea
51%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
26%
Barnechea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
81%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
49%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
23%
Barnechea 1+ goals
69%
Barnechea 2+ goals
32%
Barnechea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
65%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.79 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more
49%
level
24%
Barnechea scores more
27%

Deportes Iquique at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Deportes Iquique 0–2 Barnechea

Barnechea beat Deportes Iquique 2-0 in Primera B on October 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.