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Barnechea vs Deportes Iquique — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
5/11/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 14Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Barnechea46%
×Draw25%
Deportes Iquique29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.53
Deportes Iquique
1.16

Barnechea creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 55 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
Deportes Iquique
1.11

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
Deportes Iquique
1.56

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Deportes Iquique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
71%
Barnechea or Deportes Iquique
75%
Draw or Deportes Iquique
54%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
23%
Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
78%
Barnechea 2+ goals
45%
Barnechea 3+ goals
20%
Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
32%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
61%
Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Deportes Iquique attack 1.11 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barnechea scores more
46%
level
25%
Deportes Iquique scores more
29%

Barnechea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barnechea 6–2 Deportes Iquique

Barnechea beat Deportes Iquique 6-2 in Primera B on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.