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Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta — Copa Chile 2019

Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquiqueadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
6/29/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deportes Iquique44%
×Draw23%
Antofagasta34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Iquique
1.80
Antofagasta
1.56

Deportes Iquique creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Deportes Iquique
1.85
Antofagasta
1.75

allows per match

Deportes Iquique
1.38
Antofagasta
1.75

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par
Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Antofagasta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw
66%
Deportes Iquique or Antofagasta
77%
Draw or Antofagasta
56%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
23%
Antofagasta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
83%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
54%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
27%
Antofagasta 1+ goals
79%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
46%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
56%
Antofagasta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.85 + Antofagasta defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Antofagasta attack 1.75 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more
44%
level
23%
Antofagasta scores more
34%

Deportes Iquique at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Deportes Iquique 3–1 Antofagasta

Deportes Iquique beat Antofagasta 3-1 in Copa Chile on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.