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Antofagasta vs Deportes Iquique — Copa Chile 2019

Antofagasta
Antofagastaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
6/23/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Antofagasta42%
×Draw24%
Deportes Iquique34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antofagasta
1.56
Deportes Iquique
1.39

Antofagasta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Antofagasta
1.92
Deportes Iquique
1.36

allows per match

Antofagasta
1.42
Deportes Iquique
1.21

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par
Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

Deportes Iquique →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw
66%
Antofagasta or Deportes Iquique
76%
Draw or Deportes Iquique
58%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+
21%
Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals
79%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
46%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
21%
Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)
55%
Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.92 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.56

Deportes Iquique attack 1.36 + Antofagasta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Antofagasta scores more
42%
level
24%
Deportes Iquique scores more
34%

Antofagasta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antofagasta vs Deportes Iquique

Antofagasta beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 in Copa Chile on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Antofagasta.