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Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta — Primera B 2026

Deportes Iquique
Deportes Iquique
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Antofagasta
Antofagasta
11/26/2023Primera BPrimera B · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Deportes Iquique48%
×Draw25%
Antofagasta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Iquique
1.63
Antofagasta
1.18

Deportes Iquique creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

Deportes Iquique
1.79
Antofagasta
1.12

allows per match

Deportes Iquique
1.23
Antofagasta
1.47

finishing

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par
Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Iquique ↓

Antofagasta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Iquique or draw
72%
Deportes Iquique or Antofagasta
75%
Draw or Antofagasta
52%

Winning margin

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+
25%
Antofagasta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals
80%
Deportes Iquique 2+ goals
48%
Deportes Iquique 3+ goals
22%
Antofagasta 1+ goals
69%
Antofagasta 2+ goals
33%
Antofagasta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)
63%
Antofagasta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Iquique at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Iquique attack 1.79 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportes Iquique scores more
48%
level
25%
Antofagasta scores more
28%

Deportes Iquique at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportes Iquique will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta

Deportes Iquique beat Antofagasta 3-0 in Primera B on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.