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Depor FC vs Cucuta — Primera B 2018

Depor FC
Depor FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cucuta
Cucuta
2/4/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Depor FC29%
×Draw29%
Cucuta41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Depor FC
0.95
Cucuta
1.18

Cucuta creates 24% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 95 away

creates per match

Depor FC
0.85
Cucuta
1.08

allows per match

Depor FC
1.27
Cucuta
1.05

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par
Cucuta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Cucuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw
59%
Depor FC or Cucuta
71%
Draw or Cucuta
71%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+
11%
Cucuta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals
61%
Depor FC 2+ goals
25%
Depor FC 3+ goals
7%
Cucuta 1+ goals
69%
Cucuta 2+ goals
33%
Cucuta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)
42%
Cucuta (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Cucuta away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 0.85 + Cucuta defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Cucuta attack 1.08 + Depor FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Depor FC scores more
29%
level
29%
Cucuta scores more
41%

Cucuta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Depor FC vs Cucuta

Cucuta beat Depor FC 1-0 in Primera B on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.