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Cucuta vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Cucuta
Cucuta
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Depor FC
Depor FC
4/20/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 12Estadio General Santander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cucuta59%
×Draw24%
Depor FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cucuta
1.69
Depor FC
0.79

Cucuta creates 114% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 128 away

creates per match

Cucuta
1.75
Depor FC
0.88

allows per match

Cucuta
0.71
Depor FC
1.63

finishing

Cucuta+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cucuta ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cucuta or draw
83%
Cucuta or Depor FC
76%
Draw or Depor FC
41%

Winning margin

Cucuta wins by 2+
33%
Depor FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cucuta 1+ goals
82%
Cucuta 2+ goals
50%
Cucuta 3+ goals
24%
Depor FC 1+ goals
55%
Depor FC 2+ goals
19%
Depor FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cucuta (draw refunded)
77%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cucuta at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.71 · 93 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cucuta attack 1.75 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Cucuta defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cucuta scores more
59%
level
24%
Depor FC scores more
17%

Cucuta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cucuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cucuta host Depor FC

April 20, 2025: Cucuta take on Depor FC in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cucuta host Depor FC at Estadio General Santander.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.