Bristol Rovers 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

C. Mackail-Smith 17'

1/8/2020

League #46 · 3rd RoundMemorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bristol Rovers29%

×Draw24%

Stevenage46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.63

Bristol Rovers

1.25

Stevenage

1.63

Stevenage creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.50

Stevenage

2.00

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.25

Stevenage

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

54%

Bristol Rovers or Stevenage

76%

Draw or Stevenage

71%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Stevenage wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Stevenage 1+ goals

80%

Stevenage 2+ goals

48%

Stevenage 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

39%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Stevenage away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.50 + Stevenage defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stevenage attack 2.00 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

29%

level

24%

Stevenage scores more

46%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

T. Denton

Stevenage · D

7.3

Match Events

17'

24'

30'

45'

54'

L. Tomlinson← K. Bennett

56'

T. Vancooten← T. Soares

58'

Dean Parrett

61'

K. Guthrie← D. Parrett

66'

A. Rodman← R. Menayese

68'

Terence Vancooten

73'

T. Holmes-Dennis← M. Kelly

74'

Edward Upson

87'

Edward Upson

87'

Edward Upson

89'

M. Timlin← B. Kennedy

90'

Tony Craig

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolStevenage

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots6

4Corners5

18Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

0On Target3

3Off Target3

7Blocked0

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

498Total Passes297

391Accurate Passes185

79%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

League #46: Bristol Rovers 0–1 Stevenage

Stevenage beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League #46 on January 8, 2020.

Goals: C. Mackail-Smith (17').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #46: Bristol Rovers 0–1 Stevenage