Denmark U19 4–0 Estonia U19: Result & Stats

Denmark U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estonia U19

11/18/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Stade Marcel-Garcin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Denmark U1971%

×Draw18%

Estonia U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Denmark U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.77

Denmark U19

2.27

Estonia U19

0.77

Denmark U19 creates 195% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.60

creates per match

0.64

0.90

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Denmark U19

2.60

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Denmark U19

0.90

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw

89%

Denmark U19 or Estonia U19

82%

Draw or Estonia U19

29%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

47%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals

90%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

66%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

39%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

54%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

18%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 2.60 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.27

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Denmark U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Denmark U19 scores more

71%

level

18%

Estonia U19 scores more

11%

Denmark U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff