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Denmark U19 vs Estonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Denmark U19
Denmark U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estonia U19
Estonia U19
10/13/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Rakvere linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Denmark U1977%
×Draw14%
Estonia U198%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denmark U19
2.65
Estonia U19
0.75

Denmark U19 creates 253% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Denmark U19
1.80
Estonia U19
0.00

allows per match

Denmark U19
1.50
Estonia U19
3.50

finishing

Denmark U19+0.00on par
Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denmark U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Denmark U19 or draw
92%
Denmark U19 or Estonia U19
86%
Draw or Estonia U19
23%

Winning margin

Denmark U19 wins by 2+
56%
Estonia U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Denmark U19 1+ goals
93%
Denmark U19 2+ goals
74%
Denmark U19 3+ goals
48%
Estonia U19 1+ goals
53%
Estonia U19 2+ goals
17%
Estonia U19 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)
90%
Estonia U19 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denmark U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denmark U19 attack 1.80 + Estonia U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Estonia U19 attack 0.00 + Denmark U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Denmark U19 scores more
77%
level
14%
Estonia U19 scores more
8%

Denmark U19 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denmark U19 vs Estonia U19

Denmark U19 beat Estonia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Rakvere linnastaadion in Rakvere.