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Denizlispor vs Afjet Afyonspor — 1. Lig 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
10/19/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 9Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Denizlispor44%
×Draw26%
Afjet Afyonspor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.48
Afjet Afyonspor
1.18

Denizlispor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.48
Afjet Afyonspor
1.12

allows per match

Denizlispor
1.23
Afjet Afyonspor
1.47

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
70%
Denizlispor or Afjet Afyonspor
74%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
56%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
22%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
77%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
43%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
19%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
69%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
33%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
59%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Denizlispor scores more
44%
level
26%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
30%

Denizlispor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Afjet Afyonspor

Denizlispor beat Afjet Afyonspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on October 19, 2018.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.