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Afjet Afyonspor vs Denizlispor — 1. Lig 2018

Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
3/17/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Zafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor35%
×Draw25%
Denizlispor40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afjet Afyonspor
1.38
Denizlispor
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.12
Denizlispor
1.25

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.76
Denizlispor
1.63

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw
60%
Afjet Afyonspor or Denizlispor
75%
Draw or Denizlispor
65%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
16%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
75%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
40%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
16%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
78%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
44%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
46%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Denizlispor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Denizlispor attack 1.25 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more
35%
level
25%
Denizlispor scores more
40%

Denizlispor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afjet Afyonspor vs Denizlispor

Denizlispor beat Afjet Afyonspor 3-1 in 1. Lig on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Zafer Stadı in Afyonkarahisar.