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DEM vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hercules
Hercules
10/9/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 10Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

DEM32%
×Draw24%
Hercules44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.40
Hercules
1.69

Hercules creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Hercules
1.80

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Hercules
1.24

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

DEM or draw
56%
DEM or Hercules
76%
Draw or Hercules
68%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
14%
Hercules wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
75%
DEM 2+ goals
41%
DEM 3+ goals
17%
Hercules 1+ goals
82%
Hercules 2+ goals
50%
Hercules 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
42%
Hercules (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Hercules defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hercules attack 1.80 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

DEM scores more
32%
level
24%
Hercules scores more
44%

Hercules at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs Hercules

Hercules beat DEM 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.