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DEM vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
1 – 4
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
11/28/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 14Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

DEM37%
×Draw24%
Blauw Geel39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.54
Blauw Geel
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 100 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

DEM or draw
61%
DEM or Blauw Geel
76%
Draw or Blauw Geel
63%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
18%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
79%
DEM 2+ goals
45%
DEM 3+ goals
20%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
80%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
47%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
48%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

DEM scores more
37%
level
24%
Blauw Geel scores more
39%

Blauw Geel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs Blauw Geel

Blauw Geel beat DEM 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.