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Blauw Geel vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
CANC
13:30
DEM
DEM
3/7/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Blauw Geel49%
×Draw24%
DEM28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blauw Geel
1.74
DEM
1.25

Blauw Geel creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 48 away

creates per match

Blauw Geel
1.96
DEM
1.23

allows per match

Blauw Geel
1.28
DEM
1.52

finishing

Blauw Geel+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blauw Geel ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blauw Geel or draw
72%
Blauw Geel or DEM
76%
Draw or DEM
51%

Winning margin

Blauw Geel wins by 2+
26%
DEM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blauw Geel 1+ goals
82%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
52%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
25%
DEM 1+ goals
71%
DEM 2+ goals
36%
DEM 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
64%
DEM (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blauw Geel at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.28 · 98 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blauw Geel attack 1.96 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

DEM attack 1.23 + Blauw Geel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blauw Geel scores more
49%
level
24%
DEM scores more
28%

Blauw Geel at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Blauw Geel host DEM

March 7, 2021: Blauw Geel take on DEM in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.