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DEM vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baronie
Baronie
5/28/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 34Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM53%
×Draw21%
Baronie26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
2.06
Baronie
1.39

DEM creates 48% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

DEM
1.57
Baronie
2.56

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

DEM or draw
74%
DEM or Baronie
79%
Draw or Baronie
47%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
31%
Baronie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
87%
DEM 2+ goals
61%
DEM 3+ goals
34%
Baronie 1+ goals
75%
Baronie 2+ goals
40%
Baronie 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
67%
Baronie (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Baronie attack 1.21 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

DEM scores more
53%
level
21%
Baronie scores more
26%

DEM at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DEM 3 – 1 Baronie

DEM beat Baronie 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.