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Baronie vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
DEM
DEM
12/4/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 17Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie29%
×Draw24%
DEM47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.31
DEM
1.71

DEM creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
DEM
1.23

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
DEM
1.52

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
53%
Baronie or DEM
76%
Draw or DEM
71%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
13%
DEM wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
73%
Baronie 2+ goals
38%
Baronie 3+ goals
14%
DEM 1+ goals
82%
DEM 2+ goals
51%
DEM 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
39%
DEM (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

DEM attack 1.23 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baronie scores more
29%
level
24%
DEM scores more
47%

DEM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 4–1 DEM

Baronie beat DEM 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.