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DEM vs ADO Den Haag II — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
CANC
00:00
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
3/14/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 25Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

DEM43%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.77
ADO Den Haag II
1.58

DEM creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 10 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
ADO Den Haag II
1.60

allows per match

DEM
1.57
ADO Den Haag II
2.00

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DEM or draw
65%
DEM or ADO Den Haag II
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
57%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
22%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
83%
DEM 2+ goals
53%
DEM 3+ goals
26%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
79%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
47%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
55%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.60 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

DEM scores more
43%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
35%

DEM at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: DEM host ADO Den Haag II

March 14, 2020: DEM take on ADO Den Haag II in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

DEM host ADO Den Haag II at Sportpark Adrichem (DEM) (Beverwijk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.