ADO Den Haag II 0–3 DEM: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag II

FT

0 – 3

DEM

12/8/2019

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 15Cars Jeans Stadion (Den Haag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ADO Den Haag II55%

×Draw21%

DEM24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchDEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.28

ADO Den Haag II

2.05

DEM

1.28

ADO Den Haag II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

2.58

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

2.58

DEM

1.23

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.33

DEM

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

DEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

76%

ADO Den Haag II or DEM

79%

Draw or DEM

45%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

33%

DEM wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

87%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

61%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

33%

DEM 1+ goals

72%

DEM 2+ goals

37%

DEM 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

70%

DEM (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 2.58 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.05

DEM attack 1.23 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

55%

level

21%

DEM scores more

24%

ADO Den Haag II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff