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Delta Porto Tolle vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
1 – 3
Adriese
Adriese
9/29/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 6Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle34%
×Draw25%
Adriese40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.33
Adriese
1.46

Adriese creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
60%
Delta Porto Tolle or Adriese
75%
Draw or Adriese
66%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
15%
Adriese wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
74%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
38%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
15%
Adriese 1+ goals
77%
Adriese 2+ goals
43%
Adriese 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
46%
Adriese (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Adriese attack 1.36 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
34%
level
25%
Adriese scores more
40%

Adriese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Delta Porto Tolle 1 – 3 Adriese

Adriese beat Delta Porto Tolle 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari (Porto Tolle).